May 22, 2013

A Blended Investments Style Can Lead to High Returns With Low Risk

Value and Momentum

A blended investment style for all markets can lead to high returns with low risk.

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AAII 2013

David John Marotta presenting AAII 2013

Follow-up information for 2013 AAII presentation “Dynamic Portfolio Construction in the Context of Comprehensive Wealth Management.”

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2012 Asset Allocation in Review

Best and Worst Indexes by month during 2012

Asset Allocation means always having something to complain about.

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Carnival of Passive Investing – #25 – Gingerbread House Edition

Gingerbread House

Passive investing is like a ginger bread house, a sweet and beautiful harmonious selection of treats which work well together to build your financial house.

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Financially Savvy Kittens on Market Timing

Financially Savvy Kittens on Market Timing

This kitten doesn’t time the markets. Be more like this kitten.

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Why invest in the emerging markets?

Monkey Thinking

Four reasons not to abandon a brilliant allocation that includes emerging markets simply because of short term fluctuations.

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How are foreign stocks doing compared to stocks in the United States? Fall 2012

The United States of America

Sometimes the medium term trend seems to weigh more heavily in our minds than the long or short term trends.

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Valuable Property

Monopoly House on Coin

“Real estate investment trusts should be much more than an optional selection in a balanced investment portfolio.”

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Why We Don’t Rebalance

Don't Lose Your Head

“Perfectly rational individuals exhibit changing risk aversion that makes it hard for them to rebalance into high-return assets that have had steep price declines.”

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Four Reasons Convertible Bonds Are Flawed

convertible bonds_t

Generally speaking, financial complexity is a curtain behind which the finance industry can extract its fee. When the curtain is pulled back, convertible bonds fail to add value for four specific reasons.

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Risk – Return Decisions

Safe Withdrawal Rate by Investments

Portfolio construction begins with the most basic allocation between investments that offer a greater chance of appreciation (stocks) and those that provide portfolio stability (bonds). There is no such thing as a safe investment that pays market rates of return.

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Emerging Market Bond Funds

Brazil Reais

Emerging market bonds are an attractive way to get a higher yield, but historically they have come with higher volatility and a high incidence of default. But that has been changing.

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Marotta’s 2012 Gone-Fishing Portfolio

Gone-Fishing 2012

A gone-fishing portfolio has a limited number of investments with a balanced asset allocation that should do well with dampened volatility. Its primary appeal is simplicity. As a secondary virtue, it avoids the worst mistakes of the financial services industry.

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Marotta’s 2012 Gone-Fishing Portfolio Calculator

Gone Fishing Portfolio Calculator

A gone-fishing portfolio has a limited number of investments with a balanced asset allocation that should do well with dampened volatility.

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When growth is relatively cheap it will outperform value

When growth is cheap it will out perform

When growth is relatively cheap it should outperform value.

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When large cap is relatively cheap it will outperform small cap

When large cap is cheap it will outperform

Currently large is relatively cheap and small cap is relatively expensive. For that reason, the R1000 or S&P 500 should outperform the R2000 small cap.

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Using Dynamic Asset Allocation to Boost Returns

Dynamic Asset Allocation

Think of static asset allocation as where to set your sails and dynamic asset allocation as a way to keep your balance as your boat glides and sometimes bounces through the waves.

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The Shiller Ten-Year P/E Ratio

Robert Shiller

What we would really like to measure are the changes in price (P) that cause a company with a good long-term track record to look relatively cheap. Economist Robert Shiller created just such a measurement.

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Style Boxes and the Efficient Frontier

Marotta Asset Allocation 2010

The Marotta allocation method is a proportionally weighted allocation based on the square of each Sharpe ratio. Squaring the Sharpe ratio drastically reduces asset categories in proportion to their distance from the efficient frontier.

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Rebalancing asset classes and subcategories

Stone Tower

Diversifying your portfolio means finding assets that have value on their own merits but do not move exactly alike. Here are the principles on building and rebalancing asset classes and subcategories.

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Asset Allocation and the Efficient Frontier

Blended Efficient Frontier

Crafting portfolio asset allocations is a combination of art and engineering. Just as a blending of colors can produce cerulean, so a blending of indexes produces a unique shade of risk and return.

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$ ?s: Dividend Portfolios Carry Hidden Risks (Part 1)

$ Questions

Dividend investors are too easily lulled into the temporary comforts of portfolio income.

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Capital Gains Tax Rising

cap_gains_tax_chart_t

Starting in 2013, pending further legislation, the capital gains tax will go up to 20%.

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The Efficient Frontier

america-the-new-world_t

The efficient frontier measures all investments on a scale of risk and return. Risk is commonly placed on the x-axis, and return is placed on the y-axis.

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Burton Malkiel Picks Bonds as ‘Worst Asset Class for Investors’

Burton Malkiel

Even if the overall inflation rate is only 2.25% in the next 10 years, an investor who holds a 10-year Treasury until maturity will realize a zero real return after inflation.

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Value: The Third Factor of Investing

R2000 Value - Growth

A stock’s valuation is measured on a continuum from “value” to “growth” In broad strokes, value stocks are cheap and growth stocks are expensive.

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Size: The Second Factor of Investing

Factor to Size

The second factor of investing is size as measured by a stock’s total capitalization. Over time small cap will outperform large cap even after factoring out measurements of volatility.

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CAPM: The First Factor of Investing

CAPM

Modeling investment returns seeks to find an equation to predict your expected returns as much as possible. The simplest equation for the markets would be “Return equals 11.71%.” This has been the average return from 1927 through 2010, the zero factor model.

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Roth IRA Recharacterization 2012: Undoing a Roth Conversion

Roth Undo

Nearly everyone is an excellent candidate for a Roth conversion this year. You can always undo part or all of a Roth conversion with what’s called a recharacterization, so you can’t convert too much.

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Roth IRA Conversion 2012: A Roth Conversion Calculator

Calculations

Nearly everyone is an excellent candidate for executing a Roth conversion this year. But it is helpful to have a target amount in mind before you begin.

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The Absolutely Last Chance for a Massive Roth Conversion

Racoon in Tree

A tax tsunami is coming at the end of this year. This will be your last opportunity to safeguard your assets in a lifeboat and avoid getting swamped with taxes.

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Freedom Investing 2012

freedom-2012_t

Now at year end, I will review how freedom investing fared in 2011 and in the decade since 2002.

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Mailbag: How do you measure how far out of balance a portfolio is?

Stone Tower

We compute an asset allocation deviation or “out of balance” number for each household’s primary retirement assets and rebalance to lower this number.

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$ ?s: Investment advice for those who don’t need the money

$ Questions

Q: I am a 65-year-old retired widow and I have a large IRA. How should I invest if I don’t need this money?

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Indexing Works

Golden Glass

“Many investors think active managers can shift out of stocks in time to stem losses in bear markets. Not true.”

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Debt, Uncertainty and Volatility in 2011

2011 in Review

The world markets groaned as the burden of the rising American debt and the European deficit weighed down more productive countries.

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The House That Bogle Built

The House That Bogle Built

Learn about the index preferred by the person who invented index funds with the Vanguard S&P 500. And no, it isn’t the S&P 500.

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The Devil’s Invention

The House That Bogle Built

“A blindfolded chimpanzee throwing darts at The Wall Street Journal can select a portfolio that can do just as well as the experts.”

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How should we manage a non-profit endowment?

Prudent Practices for Investment Stewards

“There exists a timeless and flexible process for successful investment management decision making that is specifically tailored for Investment Stewards.”

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Video: Where Do You Invest? Learn All Six Asset Classes

David Marotta Video Green Background

Most investors invest in only one and a half of the six asset classes. Learn where to invest in all six and how to tilt in each to over-emphasize appropriate categories.

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Being Reasonable

Glasses of Gold Growth

“One of an advisor’s greatest challenges? Directing client expectations – and meeting them with portfolio performance.”

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Book Review: The Investment Answer

Investment Answer

When Gordon Murphy, an investment banking veteran, was told he only had six months to live, he decided to use his last days to write a book aimed at changing the way most individual investors think about investing.

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The Talmud Strategy

Hebrew

“Let every man divide his money into three parts, and invest a third in land, a third in business and a third let him keep by him in reserve.”

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Your Portfolio Needs Rebalancing

Rock Structure Balance

Most investors do not have a balanced portfolio. And by chasing investment returns they miss the easy money they could make from having a good asset allocation in the first place and rebalancing it periodically.

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Investing Mostly in Bonds Means a Lower Lifestyle in Retirement

Safe Withdrawal Rate by Investments

In the midst of this turmoil, especially after this past summer’s sharp drop, many investors wonder if they should put all of their investments into something safe and avoid the markets altogether.

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Video: Even Investment Losses Can Save You Money

Marotta Youtube

In the process of building wealth, saving a penny on your taxes is just as important as earning a penny in the markets.

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Is My House an Investment?

House in the Woods

Just because something costs a lot doesn’t mean it is an investment. An investment is something that pays you money.

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Money Questions: Benchmark Your Retirement Savings

$ Questions

Q: I just hit the big 5-0, and my retirement date is now in the foreseeable future. How do you suggest I assess the performance of my 401(k) and investment accounts? Do you have any benchmark recommendations? I would like to know if I need to make changes or if I should stay the course. [...]

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Mailbag: Is there a certain Roth you recommend?

Amy Lee

I’m in my 20s and I’m just getting started in the working world.I’m also looking at a Roth IRA. Is there a certain Roth you recommend?

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Mailbag: Which of these 401k investment choices do you recommend?

Amy Lee

I’m in my 20s and I’m just getting started in the working world. Which of the attached 401k investment choices do you recommend?

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